The sky is falling

The latest edition of a time-honored custom has been resurrected in Hawaii; check out a story on the Geneva (Switzerland) CERN new partical accelerator in the NY Times:
Asking a Judge to Save the World, and Maybe a Whole Lot More
where two guys

… contend that scientists at the European Center for Nuclear Research, or CERN, have played down the chances that the collider could produce, among other horrors, a tiny black hole, which, they say, could eat the Earth. Or it could spit out something called a “strangelet” that would convert our planet to a shrunken dense dead lump of something called “strange matter.”

and to think this story came before April-1.

I am thinking of researching the idea that we already have been swallowed by a strangelet and although it may not seem like a dense dead lump of matter below you, it sure seems like we are living among strange matter once you consider what shows up on TV.

Spitzer got SAR-ed

U.S. financial depository institutions, in particular, are required to file a CTR (Currency Transaction Report) for a $10,000 or more deposit or withdrawal of cash by any customer. To make it even more fun (information-processing-wise), institutions must monitor for separate cash transactions occurring at different tellers, branches, or any other separate location on any banking day. For example, someone depositing (or withdrawing) $4,000 in cash at three different branches (3 x $4,000 = $12,000) over the course of a day must get a CTR. Additionally, if any customer presents over $3,000 in cash for a money order or bank check (known specifically as monetary instruments), a CTR should be completed and sent to the US Treasury division called FINCEN (Financial Crimes Enforcement Network).

The CTR filing requirements are quite specific; a more subjective requirement puts the onus on financial institutions to generate a SAR (Suspicious Activity Report) whenever there is cash activity, even under the $10,000 per day guideline, that is suspicious. Suspicious cash activity could be a customer depositing $9,999 three days in a row; even a $9,000 withdrawal or deposit without explanation should get a SAR if there is no clear reason behind the activity (this requirement is quite subjective and forcing banks to question customers on their sources and uses of cash can get problematic, especially on the teller line). Besides making tellers and customers uncomfortable, filing SARs is also a pain in the ass for tellers. With this ambiguity in the information collection requirements and problems with the quality of data collection, larger banks augment their data processing for CTR requirements (aggregating cash activity across the enterprise per day) with significant data analysis and pattern-sniffing number crunching over extended time periods.

The next bust

An NPR interview on Friday last discussed the meaning of $106/barrel oil on the spot commodities markets. The interviewee suggested that the actual market price based on supply/demand is around $80/barrel; he noted there was plenty of supply and the excess in the current market price is attributable to speculation in futures contracts by large mutual and pension funds desperate for higher returns during the current “credit crunch.” The excessive betting on the future of the price of oil in the face of adequate supply and not-so-desperate demand suggests falling spot prices; the only remaining question is who bets wrong and can they handle the losses?

I further note that it is ironic that many Americans decry the excessive profits of oil companies yet a significant part of their future income is based on investments betting on an increasing price of oil and profit growth from these same oil corporations.